对话蒋冠军：定义和解决业务问题的能力是精算师安身立命的根本

原文来自：CAS亚洲地区分会 访谈原文链接

访谈导语

为了加强在校学生对产险精算行业的了解，促进校企间的交流合作，CAS 产险精算协会特地举办了 CAS University Insider 项目，Insider 的第一个任务就是对产险精算专家的访谈，我们来看看他们都聊了那些话题。下述观点均属个人，不代表产险精算协会。

访谈嘉宾介绍

蒋冠军，北美产险精算师(FCAS)，现任明德(Milliman)精算咨询合伙人，领导明德在中国大陆的财产险和健康险咨询工作。

访谈团队介绍

CAS University Insider
常森峰：厦门大学，保险专业，研二在读
郭   航：西南财经大学，保险学(保险精算)，研一在读

访谈摘要

1Q: 您当年是怎么踏上精算之路，又是哪个契机，让您选择了非寿险呢？

      我本科的专业是数学，学完之后我发觉纯理论的东西未必适合我，从那时起我就开始关注精算等应用领域了，但研究生阶段也没有直接读精算，选择了金融工程专业，基本想法是希望用数学解决一些实际的问题。如果一直在数学领域里研究，产出实际效果的周期可能会特别长，这未必是我特别想做的事情。在金融和保险领域应用数学的周期更短，运用数学这一强大的工具，能够通过一个比较短、平、快的方式，对实际的问题产生影响。国外读书期间就考虑回来，但国内那时候量化金融的环境不太成熟，也还算比较自然的选择精算行业。
      至于我为什么选择产险精算，从上世纪90年代起步，寿险精算的发展基本要领先产险10年左右，相对更加成熟，而产险精算的机会和挑战相对就会更多一些，有更大机会能在短时间内能成为一个领域里面的专家，最终选择进入产险精算领域。


2Q: 请问应该怎么规划和对待自己的精算考试呢？

      我觉得这很大程度上取决于每人愿意用什么样的节奏去推进这个事情。如果说你有明确的要求，希望两三年内一定要把证拿到，那你很自然需要付出一段时间更加辛勤的努力。如果你希望更好地平衡工作与生活，享受考试这个过程，那可能要付出多一点时间。
      可能国内有些学生更倾向于在学校里就考完精算考试，然后拿到证书。实际上，招聘中我们不会因为额外的考试而给你加分。总体来说，精算一定是需要一些知识积累的工作。这不是获得一个学位或者拿到证书就能具备的技能而是需要一段时间比较密集的持续学习和实践才能获得的。把学习和考试的内容跟工作协同起来，提高个人的综合能力，这是我认为比较重要的。


3Q: 您在精算实务中是否会应用到机器学习或数据科学？如果是，目前主要用它来发现风险特征、验证模型、风险预测还是其他用途呢？

      近几年，整个保险业界和很多其他行业一样，对机器学习有特别多的关注。一些保险公司也开始通过机器学习做一些探索，去做没有先验认识的预测分析和风险细分等。
比如我们要识别客户风险，就可以便利的建立一个比较稳健的先验模型架构，有很好的经验知道什么变量可以放到模型里面，很快能产生好的建模效果。但如果转到一个新的研究领域中，例如我们要识别潜在客户的销售转化率，那就需要通过机器学习去做尝试性的建模，提取重要特征。客户标签可能有上千个字段，有哪些和车险风险或健康风险是相关的，需要探索。我们如果不知道具体的模型变量，或者对模型架构没有特别好的认识，这时机器学习就能派上用场，帮助项目人员更好更快地建立认识、确定模型、解决问题。


4Q: 初级精算师和资深精算师有些什么样的差别？精算工作是否会被数据科学冲击呢？

      一方面，你们面临非常好的一个机会，现在技术手段能够迅速地去帮助精算师在公司中建立竞争优势。比如说机器学习，保险公司中真正深入研究的人其实不是特别多，那初级精算师就可以利用机器学习迅速地建立某一领域自己的优势。另外一方面也需要认识到，只有对业务本身有深入的认识，才会让你成为一名真正合格的精算师。数据科学家可能会比我们更了解算法，但精算师的优势在于我们对具体保险业务的认识，这不是数据科学家在短时间内就能建立的。
我觉得随着算法持续改进、算力持续提升，传统精算建模工作被数据科学家或者机器取代是有可能的。但定义和解决业务问题的能力，我觉得很大程度上可能是精算人员安身立命的根本，这是技术无法代替的。


5Q: 保险科技目前在保险行业较为热门，您认为保险科技目前所依赖的技术基础是否成熟？投入的技术研发成本是否足以弥补保险科技预期带来的短期或长期效益？

      过去的几年里，众安等互联网保险公司在技术方面去做了非常多的投入，包括传统IT信息系统和保险科技等方面。据我所知，在这个过程中一些互联网公司也走了弯路，这可能在于他们过分强调技术。技术确实是用来解决业务问题的重要工具，但是首先需要清楚在业务流程中面临什么痛点，然后采用什么样的技术手段能够解决，我认为这样的逻辑才是正常的逻辑，而不是一味地去强调技术，然后拿着锤子到处去找钉子。
当然长期来看，技术毫无疑问会在一定程度上去替代我们现有的人力，帮助保险公司提升风险的认识，或者提升效率。比如目前绝大部分车险都应该是自动核保，如果现在有公司还是靠人力核保的话，那这个公司就很难有什么竞争力。再比如电话销售，目前各公司已经开始通过技术手段降低人力成本，在过去的两年里已经有比较好的进步。


6Q: 数据是精算师进行分析决策的重要基础之一，而数据和特征在某种程度上也决定了算法效果的上限。在您的工作中，是否会遇到数据不足、数据质量低或者数据获取成本过高等问题？您是如何解决的呢？

      当然会有这样的状况，而且处理不同险种的挑战可能是不一样的。对于车险，大部分公司可以提供充足的数据，依赖这些数据就能得出不错的分析结果，初级精算师和资深精算师的结果差别不会太大。但对于健康险，现在整个行业都是缺数据的。在这种情况下，怎么基于现有的信息进行判断，在风险可控的情况下逐渐积累和运用数据，这是我们面临的主要问题，不能总是等着数据足够了再去解决问题。这种情况下，精算师一方面需要基于对业务领域的认识进行判断，这需要长期的经验积累；另一方面也需要尽可能去收集保险行业之外的第三方数据，通过这些数据提升你对具体业务的认识或者判断，同时还需要考虑成本和效益的平衡。


7Q: 您认为现在中国的精算师人才培养产出在质量和数量上，与行业的需求是否匹配？

      这是一个很有意思的话题，大家都意识到存在不匹配的问题。一方面，由于个人或市场等因素的制约，精算毕业生就业时可能面临一定压力，未必能找到合适的精算岗位，未必会顺利进入精算领域；另一方面，保险公司或者用人单位也面临着困惑，一个精算岗位的招聘通常可能会收到挺多的简历，但符合条件的简历并没有那么多，也比较难去找到合适的人。
      这确实是需要大家一起努力去解决的问题，学生需要几年学习才能掌握和运用这些技能，业界需要持续地有新鲜的血液加入才能够持续发展。因此用人单位甚至整个业界都需要跟高校进行更好的沟通。各个协会也做了一些不错的尝试，包括你们帮CAS去做的一些工作，这都可以推动缩小业界对精算人员的预期和高校精算人员培养的目标之间的差异。


8Q: 当前和未来成为一名产险精算师，您认为有哪些技能和品质是非常重要的？

      先说品质吧，对于精算师的品质，我们会有一些通用的要求，比如终身学习的心态、良好的合作意识、量化思维和对细节的关注。但是对技能的要求可能没那么严格，我们招聘时精算师考试通过两到四门都有机会。编程语言方面，基础的SAS、R或者SQL等语言有基础的训练都可以，只要你有合适的品质，以后去学习其它的编程技能，其实都不会特别困难。对精算领域的专注和兴趣也是我们比较关心的方面，如果说你仅因为听说精算行业有不错的发展前景才进入这个行业，没有考虑跟个人的兴趣是否契合，这是我们不提倡的。


9Q: 您对国内产险及产险精算的发展有什么看法与展望？

      大家目前都认同行业存在很大的缺口。并且过去几年我们也十分欣喜地看到有很多精算师没有去做传统的精算工作比如产品定价、模型评估等，他们积累了一定经验之后，基于他们对业务领域的认识，会去做一些更有创造性的工作。比如说去独立创业，集中精力解决运营管理价值链中的痛点问题，利用比较短、平、快的方式去突击行业里的重点问题。
      我们也会看到这种现象，精算已经不局限于精算部门，还会出现在车险部、再保部、财务部、企划部等等，其他业务部门、其他行业都在逐渐认识到精算的量化思维能力。整体来说，我对行业本身发展还是比较乐观的，保险公司对精算的需求在提升，同时精算人员也开始在各个部门或者行业崭露头角。

来蒋总的访谈下许愿进Milliman，进了的话来还愿

萌新报到2023年8月30日15:42:07

感谢前辈们的努力与分享~~~

СоХюЦТ ·±нУЪ 2023-8-30 15:42
ГИРВ±Ё2023Дк8ФВ30ИХ15:42:07

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra20.at
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra20.cc
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra20.cc
https://kra27-cc.ru

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra26.cc
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra29.at
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra21.cc
https://kra26-at.com

Edgar1998 ·±нУЪ 2020-12-1 14:43
АЧЬД·ГМёПВРнФёшMillimanшБЛД°А№Фё

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra22.at
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra26.cc
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra27 at
https://kra29at.cc

Edgar1998 ·±нУЪ 2020-12-1 14:43
АЧЬД·ГМёПВРнФёшMillimanшБЛД°А№Фё

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra21 at
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra28.cc
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra27.at
https://kra-30.cc

Modestocof ·±нУЪ 2025-4-24 05:40
Tbilisi, Georgia  Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike  ...

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Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra23.cc
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra28 at
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra28.at
https://kraken24at.net

Modestocof ·±нУЪ 2025-4-24 13:18
Tbilisi, Georgia  Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike  ...

President Donald Trump speaks about the mid-air crash between American Airlines flight 5342 and a military helicopter in Washington. Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
New York
CNN
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President Donald Trump on Thursday blamed the Federal Aviation Administration’s “diversity push” in part for the plane collision that killed 67 people in Washington, DC. But DEI backers, including most top US companies, believe a push for diversity has been good for their businesses.

Trump did not cite any evidence for how efforts to hire more minorities, people with disabilities and other groups less represented in American workforces led to the crash, saying “it just could have been” and that he had “common sense.” But Trump criticized the FAA’s effort to recruit people with disabilities during Joe Biden’s administration, even though the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan for the 2020-2029 period, issued under Trump’s first administration, promoted and supported “the hiring of people with disabilities and targeted disabilities.”
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It’s not the first time opponents of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, or DEI, have said they can kill people. “DEI means people DIE,” Elon Musk said after the California wildfires, criticizing the Los Angeles Fire Department and city and state officials for their efforts to advance diversity in their workforces.

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